Ontario Election 2022: Comparing Parties’ Climate Plans
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With the writ dropped for Ontario’s 2022 election on June 2, voters must decide what the next four years of provincial environmental policy will look like.
To assist, we’ve outlined some of the key features and differences between the four major parties’ climate and environment plans, and provided a short analysis to illustrate what’s good, what’s bad, and what’s missing in each party’s proposal.
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF ONTARIO – ONTARIO EMISSIONS SCENARIO AS OF MARCH 25, 2022
30% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030
Carbon pricing in accordance with minimum federal standards via backstop fuel charge and provincial Emission Performance Standards (EPS) program for industrial polluters
15% renewable gasoline content requirement by 2030
Support for “green steel” furnace conversions
Grants of “up to” $513 million for electric (and gasoline) vehicle manufacturing
75% food waste landfill diversion by 2030 target (from 42% currently)
LIBERAL PARTY OF ONTARIO – PLAN TO PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT
50% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, net-zero by 2050
Carbon pricing via strengthened EPS program for industrial polluters (no reference to fuel charge, presumably it will simply be left as is)
Regulated provincial offset system
Mandate climate risk reporting (aka climate-related financial disclosures) for public companies
$1 transit fares and $40 monthly passes until 2024
Up to $8,000 rebate (in addition to the federal $5,000 rebate) for EVs, $1,500 rebate for charging infrastructure, $500 rebate for electric bikes
Mandate 60% new zero emission passenger vehicles sales by 2030, 100% by 2035
Scrap Highway 413 project
NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF ONTARIO – GREEN NEW DEMOCRATIC DEAL
50% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, net-zero by 2050
Carbon pricing via new cap and trade system with most proceeds funding green transition initiatives and “at least” 25% used to support low-income, rural, and Northern Ontarians
Establish Youth Climate Corps providing young Ontarians “experience restoring and enhancing Ontario’s natural landscape, while gaining knowledge, skills, a fair wage, and a fee credit towards post-secondary education”
“Strong” incentives for EV purchases (excluding luxury vehicles), especially those made in Canada, including a $600 home charging credit
Mandate that new homes have EV charging capacity
Target 45% new zero emission passenger vehicles sales by 2030, 100% by 2035
Ban non-medical single use plastics by 2024
GREEN PARTY OF ONTARIO – ROADMAP TO NET-ZERO
51% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, net-zero by 2045
Pricing carbon by assuming provincial control of both fuel charge and industrial system (i.e., EPS, which has been provincially-controlled since Jan 1, 2022) and raising the per tonne rate $25 per year to $300 by 2032 (compared to current federal target of $170 by 2030), strengthening industrial system
Phase out sale of new gas and diesel-fueled passenger vehicles, medium-duty trucks, and buses by 2030
Amend Ontario Building Code so new commercial and residential buildings (and additions) are zero-emission by 2028 and built with “the lowest carbon footprint possible”
Require implementation of Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) securities regulation recommendations (for public companies)
Provide tax incentives for green venture capital investing
1% “climate surcharge” on top 10% income earners
ANALYSIS
The Liberals took a little longer than they should have to come out with their climate plan, but it reflects and benefits from their patience. Though shorter than the NDP and Green Party plans, it proposes several highly ambitious policies – particularly with respect to transit and EV adoption incentives - that will, if nothing else, raise the stakes of Ontario climate policy conversations.
The Liberals also propose a regulated offset system – something notably absent from all other climate plans, though both the NDP and Green Party reference limiting offset use without explicitly stating that they’ll create a regulated offset system. Such a system if well-regulated could provide economic opportunities for farmers, waste companies, and other parties reducing or sequestering carbon in the province, while avoiding the pitfalls of problematic voluntary markets.
(Disclaimer: I recommended proposing a provincial regulated offset system to an Ontario Liberal Party staffer recently – not sure if that made the difference.)
The Green Party plan, unsurprisingly, features the most ambitious targets (e.g., net-zero by 2045, gas vehicle phase-out by 2030), numerous specific and creative policies (e.g., green roofs and “turning surplus parking lots into mini forests”), and an impressive focus on budgeting. It also sensibly proposes simply bringing Ontario carbon pricing entirely under provincial control, which would allow the province to potentially tailor its application more specifically to provincial circumstances.
The NDP plan features numerous strong targets and policies as well, particularly its proposed Youth Climate Corps, but makes a mistake by putting a new cap and trade plan at its core.
Whereas both the Liberals and Greens want to keep the current carbon pricing system more or less in place with tweaks, the NDP’s plan would create public consternation and new compliance headaches for businesses that have already seen four major program changes in as many years, with no clear benefit to anyone from yet another overhaul. Though admittedly businesses with the largest compliance burdens would likely be industrial polluters already operating with a cap and trade system in the form of the EPS.
The lack of specificity regarding allocation of carbon pricing revenue from the NDP’s proposed program is also problematic. Uniquely, their plan would not return funds to most citizens in the form of a rebate of “dividend”. As the federal Liberals prepare to start distributing Climate Action Incentive payments quarterly, the Ontario NDP’s plan would remove one of the most broadly beneficial aspects of the current carbon pricing regime in Canada’s most populous province at a time of rising fuel costs – with potential national repercussions come the next federal election.
Last but also least is the Progressive Conservative Party plan, which does little to suggest another four years of Premier Ford’s government would much improve its environmental record. The PCs propose few new policies while setting the lowest targets across the board for emission reduction, EV adoption, and everything else.
Considering his government came to power boasting of Ontario’s cleantech business bonafides, Ford’s policies have been utterly disastrous, wasteful, and frustrating for Ontario businesses of all sorts from solar panel producers to gas stations. In particular, Ford’s decision to cancel cap and trade, fight numerous losing and unconstitutional legal battles against federal carbon pricing, then ultimately replace the federal industrial carbon pricing system in Ontario with – alas – his own cap and trade program wasted millions of taxpayer dollars while wreaking havoc upon green businesses and investments in the province (leading to more lawsuits).
So which party’s climate plan is best? Both the Liberal and Green Party plans are strong, though the Greens have the most ambitious targets. The NDP plan is far from bad but it gets the central issue of carbon pricing wrong. PCs meanwhile barely bothered to update their climate plan - proving that if they can’t use it in an attack ad, they don’t really care much about Ontario environmental policy.
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