Want to keep up with climate news, law, and policy? You can sign up for the Green Economy Law Monthly Newsletter here. Each newsletter contains a roundup of blog posts (like this one) with additional commentary, firm offerings, event listings, and more.
COP26 is concluded.
Over the duration of this year’s conference, delegates and other notable persons from the worlds of politics, business, and finance announced various pacts and initiatives, some better received than others. The event ended with a final agreement hailed as both a significant next step in fulfilling the goals of the Paris Agreement and an enormous compromise that pushes off or downplays urgently needed climate actions (e.g., phasing out coal).
Below is a summary of the conference in 10 points covering its five greatest achievements and five most notable failures.
Successes
1. UN Establishes Carbon Market Rules
Article 6 of 2015’s Paris Agreement set the stage for a global carbon market, but member nations failed to reach agreement on the framework rules that would govern such a market until the final stretch of this year’s COP.
An effectively managed global market for emissions could establish incredible financial incentives for emission reduction and sequestration, and provide more cost-efficient means for public and private parties to reach net-zero. And perhaps most importantly, a rules-based market will likely be a major improvement on existing voluntary offset markets rife with fraud.
The framework rules operate with respect to two market components:
(1) A centralized system open to public and private parties; and
(2) A bilateral system for countries to trade credits with each other.
Over the next 12 months, a UN supervisory body will develop specific rules for offset project baselines, methodologies, monitoring, and reporting. The UN will then create and administer a central registry for emissions reduction credits. 5% of credits generated, along with a monetary contribution, will be deposited in a fund to help developing countries adapt to climate change. 2% of credits will be ‘cancelled' to add an extra bit of emission reduction on top of everything.
The UN will accept post-2012 Kyoto Protocol credits in the system until the end of 2025. Many commentators noted that these pre-rules credits (seen as generally unreliable) will flood the offset market and decrease its effectiveness. However, since various countries had bought and sold such credits, they lobbied for inclusion.
2. Over 100 Countries Join US-EU Methane Pledge
The US-EU Methane Pledge initiative was announced in September and launched in Glasgow. Countries that join the pledge must commit to cutting methane emissions 30% by 2030 as compared to 2020 levels.
Methane is a greenhouse gas roughly 86 times more potent in terms of heat-trapping than carbon. That potency, though, is relatively short-lived; after 20 years, methane’s warming effect decreases significantly. Because of methane’s potency but short ‘shelf life’, aggressive near-term reductions could considerably mitigate long-term global warming.
Over 100 nations signed onto the pact in Glasgow, though notable holdouts included Australia, China, India, and Russia.
3. Deforestation Pledge Covers 90% of Earth’s Forests
141 UN members have signed onto a pledge “to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030 while delivering sustainable development and promoting an inclusive rural transformation.”
Together, the signatory nations control 90.94% of the world’s forest. Even some of the most climate-recalcitrant nations at this year’s COP signed the pledge, including Australia, Russia, China, and Brazil. India, however, remained a major holdout.
A similar 2014 pledge, however, was a massive failure, making hardly any difference at all with respect to deforestation rates. Though that agreement did not have the same amount of support as this latest one.
4. Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero Membership Swells to 450 Firms
The eloquently acronymed GFANZ “provides a forum for leading financial institutions to accelerate the transition to a net-zero global economy.”
Over 450 financial firms responsible for assets of over $130 trillion have now joined the alliance, which is co-chaired by the biggest names in sustainable finance: billionaire former-NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Bank of Canada and England Governor Mark Carney.
5. India Commits to Net-Zero by 2070
With expectations leading into COP26 somewhat depressed, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modhi injected the conference’s first day with a shot of positive energy by announcing India’s plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. As part of this plan, India will aim for 50% renewable power by 2030.
Though India’s pledge lags behind several western nations’ 2050 net-zero goals, and even China’s 2060 net-zero target, it was still regarded as a welcome development from one of the world’s largest economies and biggest climate laggards.
Failures
1. World Not on Track to Keep Warming Under 1.5 Degrees
As host of COP26, the UK’s stated goal was to “keep 1.5 alive”.
The general consensus, however, was that even if every country met their Paris and Glasgow commitments, the Earth would still be on track to considerably exceed that 1.5 degree threshold, as well as the more egregious 2 degree ceiling many scientists consider the point where things get really scary.
The conference’s final agreement called on countries to come back in 2022 with more ambitious emission reduction targets.
2. Developing Countries Fail to Secure Greater Adaptation Support
Developing nations have contributed the least to climate change but stand to suffer the worst from its effects.
At Copenhagen in 2009, rich nations promised to channel $100 billion per year to poorer nations to assist with climate adaptation. They have not kept that promise, and the amount of funding required for the world’s developing countries to successfully transition to a new green economy is only expected to increase in coming years.
At COP26, developing nations pushed for increased financial support. And though the Glasgow Pact urges developed nations to “at least” double their contributions, the effort did not ultimately succeed.
3. Coal Dependency Proves Hard to Shake
Coal is one of the greatest sources of pollution and carbon emissions, yet previous COP agreements never explicitly identified its necessary relinquishment.
COP26 broke ground by finally calling out coal. The would-be final agreement text committed to phasing it out, but a last minute push by India watered down the language to state that coal should instead be “phase[d] down”.
Several reports said that India led the charge for weakening the text, but China and the US also helped tilt the wording in coal’s favour.
Earlier in the conference, over 20 countries, including the US and Canada, pledged to (largely) end funding for foreign fossil fuel projects, but climate laggards such as Australia, Brazil, China, India, and Russia abstained.
4. Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance Attracts Few New Members
Spearheaded by Denmark and Costa Rica, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) is “an international coalition of governments and stakeholders working together to facilitate the managed phase-out of oil and gas production.”
It announced several new “core members” at COP26, including France, Sweden, Ireland, and the Province of Quebec. But even if one counts its three “associate members” (including California and New Zealand) and a sole “Friend of BOGA” (Italy), the alliance’s membership maxes out at 12, with four of those members constituting subnational governments (Quebec, California, Greenland, and Wales).
5. Gas Vehicle Phase Out Pact Lacks Major Auto Markets
A pledge to phase out gas-powered vehicle sales by 2040 garnered nearly 40 state signatories, with numerous cities, subnational governments, and auto makers joining as well. But the US, China, Germany, and Russia were notably absent, as were Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault-Nissan, and Hyundai-Kia.