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On December 13, 2023, COP28 concluded in Dubai with an agreement heralded, perhaps too optimistically, as "the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era."
Below, we’ve created a summary of the conference in 10 points, covering its five greatest achievements and five most notable failures.
Successes
1. Agreement to “Transition” from Fossil Fuels
Perhaps the most significant achievement of the conference was inclusion, in the conference’s final “global stocktake” agreement, of a clear call for all nations to transition away from the root cause of the climate emergency: fossil fuels.
Despite previous attempts to include similar language in past COP agreements, these proposals faced strong objection from petrostates and other fossil fuel interests. However, for the first time, the conference concluded by successfully acknowledging the need to move past oil, gas, and coal.
2. $700M Loss and Damage Fund
The conference’s first day saw long-awaited agreement on a loss and damage fund, which will require wealthy nations to provide financial assistance to countries already facing severe economic and other losses due to climate change.
Unfortunately, financial pledges by those "most responsible for the climate emergency" so far amount to just over $700 million, which is less than 0.2% of the estimated losses being suffered by countries most affected by climate change.
3. Global Renewables Pledge
Over 120 countries committed to significantly increasing “the pace and scale of deployment of renewables and energy efficiency” and “mov[ing] towards energy systems free of unabated fossil fuels.”
The pledge obligates signatories to, among other things, triple renewable energy generation capacity by 2030, double the “the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements,” and expand financial support for renewables, including “in emerging markets and developing economies.”
4. $7B for Food Adaptation
Food and water security concerns loomed large on the agenda. A COP28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action garnered 159 national signatories. Additionally, several countries pledged approximately $7.1 billion to support various initiatives aimed at restoring freshwater ecosystems and promoting greater climate resilience in food production.
5. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
Twelve nations (mostly small island states plus Colombia) proposed a treaty to “complement the Paris Agreement,” calling on states, organizations, cities and even individuals to clearly endorse a halt in fossil fuel expansion, and urgently implement a oil, gas, and coal phase-out.
The treaty has also obtained the support of 98 cities and subnational governments, over 2,000 organizations, and over 600,000 individuals.
Failures
1. No Agreement to “Phase Out” Fossil Fuels
130 states supported a firm commitment to phase out fossil fuels, but met with fierce resistance from petrostates. Terse negotiations eventually concluded with a weaker, somewhat vague call to "transition away" from oil, coal, and gas in the final agreement.
As commentators noted, the resulting text has "more loopholes than a block of Swiss cheese" and is unlikely to materially impact the active expansion of and investment in fossil fuels.
2. Inadequate Mitigation and Adaptation Funding
While much talk - both before and during COP28 - focused on the importance of enhancing climate resilience, the international community still lacks the necessary funds to implement the transition away from fossil fuels while adapting to our warming climate. The most recent Adaptation Gap Report clearly states that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18 times larger than current international public finance flows, with the flow of funding actually slowing.
3. Carbon Capture Capture
At least 475 lobbyists from the carbon capture and storage industry attended COP28, touting what scientists agree are “unproven technologies” that “will not curtail global heating.”
However, the existence(-ish) of these technologies makes for a nice distraction from the fossil fuel phase out effort. As such, CCS technologies were heavily promoted by COP28’s polluter attendees hoping the technology will one day allow them to cut emissions from dirty energy without abandoning it altogether.
4. Carbon Market Talks Collapse
Efforts to establish “a central system for countries and companies to begin offsetting their carbon emissions and trading those offsets” collapsed on the conference’s final day, after two weeks of negotiations.
A centralized UN-run system for offset trading had been promoted by a US-led alliance, but was ultimately rejected by the European Union, Mexico, and the Latin American bloc. The EU pushed for rules that met the more stringent standards of its own emissions trading system, which the US considered “too onerous.”
However, as Reuters reports, several analysts “said no deal was better than a bad one,” claiming that “the proposed rules would have allowed too much of a free-for-all” for countries to set their own standards.
5. No Meat and Dairy Reduction
COP28 made some progress on the issue of sustainable agriculture, but all relevant references in the final text focused on adaptation rather than mitigation from a sector responsible for around a third of global emissions.
A particularly glaring omission was the lack of reference to meat and dairy production and consumption, despite livestock production being responsible for “roughly 32 per cent” of methane emissions. Commentators observed that the record number of meat and dairy industry attendees, as well as other “Big Ag,” lobbyists, likely presented a barrier to meaningful progress on the issue.
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